Monetary Sector Reforms and Credit Demand In India: an Empirical Analysis on Banking Relationship

Analyzing the Impact of Relationship Banking on Credit Demand in the Indian Monetary Sector

by Pooja Sharma*,

- Published in International Journal of Information Technology and Management, E-ISSN: 2249-4510

Volume 5, Issue No. 1, Aug 2013, Pages 0 - 0 (0)

Published by: Ignited Minds Journals


ABSTRACT

Relationship bankingbased on Okun's "customer credit markets" has important implications formonetary policy via the credit transmission channel. Studies of LDC creditmarkets from this point of view seem to be scanty and this paper attempts toaddress this lacuna. Relationship banking implies short-term disequilibrium incredit markets, suggesting the VECM (vector error-correction model) as anappropriate framework for analysis. We develop VECM models in the Indiancontext (for the period April 1991- December 2004 using monthly data) toanalyses salient features of the credit market. An analysis of the ECMs(error-correction mechanisms) reveals that disequilibrium in the Indian creditmarket is adjusted via demand responses rather than supply responses, which isin accordance with the customer view of credit markets. Further light on theworking of the model is obtained through the "generalized" impulseresponses and "generalized" error decompositions (both of which areindependent of the variable ordering). Our conclusions point towards firmsusing short-term credit as a liquidity buffer. This fact, together with thegradual adjustment exhibited by the "persistence profiles" providessubstantive evidence in favor of "customer credit markets".

KEYWORD

relationship banking, credit demand, monetary policy, credit transmission channel, LDC credit markets, VECM models, disequilibrium, demand responses, short-term credit, liquidity buffer

INTRODUCTION

In an amazingly shrewd commitment, Okun (1981) presented the paramount refinement between "closeout" and "client" markets for items. Closeout markets are described by the nonattendance of "price tags", venders being "price-takers" instead of 'price-creators'. Such markets are proficient, with examiners arbitraging without end any unexploited benefit chances. On the other hand, most markets in this present reality show solid inertial propensities, with price tags being changed rarely and with an impressive slack according to movements in costs and interest conditions. Okun (op. cit.) ascribes such price inactivity to "pursuit costs" acquired by purchasers in acquiring price and quality data from merchants, and terms such markets as "client markets". Bank-credit markets show the run of the mill characteristics of "client markets" (Sharpe (1990)). No less than three variables help the building of long haul client relationship between a bank and its customers (Petersen and Rajan (1994), Berger and Udell (1995), Conigliani et al (1997), Boot (2000) and so on). Firstly, systems to screen the default dangers of little borrowers are non-attendant in the security market, and thus little borrowers can just have plan of action to business banks for helping. When the bank controls data in the ballpark of a particular firm, this could be normally upgraded and used for future transactions. Furthermore, as Hodgman (1961) had noted prior, credit relationships are fortified by store relationships between banks and customers. At long last, Kakes (2000), shows that customers are readied to pay a higher interest (than they could acquire by a careful market seek), as an exchange for guaranteed access to credit on simple terms all around the cycle. An undeniable conclusion of "client markets" for credit is "sticky" lending rates. Such sticky rates appear to be a just about widespread phenomenon. The notion of client credit markets has vital suggestions for the "credit perspective" of monetary policy, elaborated in Bernanke & Gertler (1995) (yet going back much prior to Wicksell (1934) and other established essayists). A credit channel may be agent either by means of a bank lending channel (monetary policy progressions accelerating relating changes in bank lending) or a "financial quickening agent" channel (monetary policy progressions impinging on the association's cost of obtaining through progressions in their total assets). A long haul bank-customer relationship, of the sort talked about above, might control banks from recalling credits to such customers or in raising interest rates on such advances when they are reestablished. The inclination is strengthened if the banks can promptly switch between credits and different sorts of ventures or discover non-store wellsprings of subsidizing. This might render the credit direct sort of incapable and in the amazing case even invalidate it by and large.

VECM MODEL

2

model the credit market as a five- variable VECM dependent upon the accompanying contemplations. Our credit variable is terrible bank credit of booked business banks however barring credit for open food obtainment, i.e. non-food bank credit (NFBC). In the vicinity of 28% of non-food credit is coordinated credit (to the supposed "necessity sectors" of farming, little scale commercial enterprises and so forth.), the rest is to the corporate sector, wholesale exchange, fares, customer and lodging account and so on and is completely at banks' watchfulness. The interest for credit is expected to hinge on upon genuine action and also the cost of credit. As a pointer of true action, we utilize the index of industrial production (IIP), which is the main marker of genuine movement accessible at month to month recurrence. It is in actuality an unacceptable measure, since it bars administrations (which are an undeniably vital segment of GDP). Quarterly arrangement of GDP is accessible, however just for a short later period (post-1996). The cost of credit to the borrower is spoken to by the prime lending rate (PLR) of the State Bank of India, which is the biggest business bank in the nation, and whose PLR is viewed as a kind of perspective rate by whatever is left of the Indian banking framework. The supply of credit (NFBC) depends both on the profit for credit and its accessibility. The net profit for credit from the bank's perspective is the spread between the lending rate (proxied by the PLR) and the cost of subsidizing. The last might be identified with a transient interest rate. In the Indian setting two decisions are accessible - the interbank call money rate (CMR) and the rate on 91-day treasury bills (TBR). Both are nearly viewed by the monetary powers, the CMR in this respect nearly paralleling the Federal Funds rate in the U.s. The TBR is however all the more straightforwardly identified with the long haul rate of interest, by means of the fortnightly closeout arrangement of treasury bills and dated government securities in operation by the monetary power (Reserve Bank of India). We try different things with both decisions of the transient rate of interest in our experimental activity. The hypothetical legitimization for a credit accessibility variable originates from Jaffee & Stiglitz (1990) who expanding Keynes' (1930) thought of an "edge of unsatisfied borrowers" infer that in models considering credit apportioning, credit accessibility may be more paramount than the cost of credit. Since models of client credit markets do take into consideration the likelihood of credit proportioning, an accessibility variable is shown. In the Indian setting, the expansive money measure M3 appears the most suitable applicant - facts on broader liquidity measures are not expected on a solid or customary premise.

RESULTS

statistics (with the lags being based on the AIC (Akaike Information Criterion)). All the variables show strong evidence supportive of unit roots6, and hence a VECM model is in order. We next turn our attention to the selection of the orders of the VAR models. A maximum order of 6 was specified and the AIC and SBC (Schwarz-Bayesian Criterion) are computed for Models A & B (with centre seasoned dummies and including D and D* alternatively). Both criteria unanimously select the optimal order as 1 for Models A and B for both choices of the dummy variable D as well as D*. We also test for the significance of the dummy variables via a likelihood ratio (LR) test. The LR statistic was insignificant for the seasonal dummies and D together, but was highly significant when D was replaced by D* (in both Models A and B)7. Thus, our Models A and B both include D* and the seasonal dummies as exogenous variables, and are modelled as VARs of order 1.

STRUCTURAL MODELLING

We investigate the element loadings for Model B; these loadings demonstrate the velocity of joining of every variable towards the long-run balance (ie. cointegrating relations), and relate to the segments of the lattice an in Johansen & Juselius (1990). Perusing over the lines, it creates the impression that NFBC modifies just towards the credit request comparison, the conformity to the credit supply mathematical statement being immaterial. There is additionally a little yet critical change toward the money request vector. Accordingly, it is prescribed that the market for bank credit, in the short-run, is commanded by interest instead of supply. Essentially, the level of industrial action IIP is seen to modify toward credit request as opposed to supply, while the interest rate variables TBR and PLR are commanded by supply considerations. A paramount aspect of long-run structural dissection is spoken to by drive reaction capacities. These measure the time profile of the impact of a stun in the framework to the different part arrangement. Conventional motivation reaction examination (e.g. Enders (1995)) experiences the well-known restriction that the effect weights are reliant on the requesting of the variables in the VAR, rendering understanding troublesome. To conquer this constraint, Gallant et.al (1993) and Koop et.al (1996) present the thought of summed up drive reactions, which are free of the requesting of the variables. These summed up drive reactions are the distinction between the desire of a future worth of the variable molded on the stun and the history of the framework and its desire adapted on its history alone10. This, obviously, obliges some presumption about the

Pooja Sharma

variables in the framework to stuns in the credit variable (NFBC), follow the reaction of NFBC to stuns in alternate variables. Both sets of drive reactions have been processed for upto 24 months ahead. The negative reaction of NFBC to M3 stuns, for the beginning couple of periods, appears to be in accordance with the support stock perspective of firms' liquidity possessions, wherein transient credit goes about as a liquidity cradle. Firms under this supposition, react to a monetary compression by expanding their interest for fleeting credit (see De Haan et. al (1994) and Kakes (2000)). The summed up conjecture error fluctuation deteriorations (Fevd's) display basically the same data in an alternate structure. The FEVD of NFBC are illustrated principally as far as its developments, with a few commitments from TBR, PLR and IIP in a specific order.

CONCLUSIONS

Deliberate investigations of the credit market in India have needed and the present paper tries to address this lacuna. We assemble a model of the Indian credit market, focusing on non-food bank credit (NFBC) in the post-1991 (liberalization period). The hypothetical support for the model is the "client" perspective of credit markets presented by Okun (1981) (likewise termed as "relationship banking" in the later written works). Such a perspective additionally has imperative suggestions for the "credit channel" variant of monetary policy. what's more Model B utilizing the 91-day Treasury Bill rate as a substitute for this cost. Both models hurl three cointegrating relations which maintain the translations of a money request, a credit interest and a credit-supply comparison individually. Distinguishing confinements were forced on each one model, to test different limitations inferred by the hypothesis, and were discovered compatible to the information. Notwithstanding, on demonstrative tallies, Model B developed sort of prevalent, and further examination was focussed on this adaptation just. An examination of the Ecms (error correction instruments) uncovered that disequilibrium in the credit market is redressed through interest instead of supply components, which is predictable with the client perspective of credit markets. Further experiences into the working of the model are furnished by the summed up motivation reactions and the summed up figure error change deteriorations. Those measures impart the paramount characteristic of being free of the requesting of the variables, which makes for a considerable change over the customary partners of be deciphered as extra circuitous confirmation in favor of the client perspective of credit markets. All the more coordinate confirmation for the client perspective hails from the "persistence profiles", which display a quite moderate acclimation to harmony in the credit market.

REFERENCES

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 Wicksell, K. (1934) : Lectures on Political Economy, Routledge & Kegan Paul, London.