Analyzing the Conceptual Framework and Policy Measures for Improving the Agricultural Trade

Analyzing India's Agricultural Trade and Food Security

by Anju Rani*,

- Published in Journal of Advances and Scholarly Researches in Allied Education, E-ISSN: 2230-7540

Volume 19, Issue No. 5, Oct 2022, Pages 197 - 202 (6)

Published by: Ignited Minds Journals


ABSTRACT

The agricultural sector has been crucial to India's progress toward its Aatmanirbhar Bharat aim, as well as the generation of much-needed foreign cash via the sale of agricultural goods. This research attempts to examine the patterns and outcomes of agricultural commerce from fiscal year 1990–1991 to fiscal year 2020–2021, with the last year coinciding with the COVID–19 epidemic. Using just available secondary sources. The first three months of 202122 saw an increase in agri-imports, vegetable oils leading the way, followed by raw and waste cotton, and then fresh fruits and vegetables. The data was compiled and analysed using standard tabular formats, visual representations of the data, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and the coefficient of variation. Thus, India has shown a remarkable development curve, going from a food-insecure nation to one that is both food-secure and food-abundant. India is now a net exporter of agricultural output thanks to a series of revolutions in agricultural productivity spurred on by technologies, incentives, and institutions.

KEYWORD

Conceptual Framework, Policy Measures, Improving, Agricultural Trade, Aatmanirbhar Bharat, agricultural sector, India's progress, foreign cash, agricultural goods, patterns, outcomes, agricultural commerce, fiscal year, COVID–19 epidemic, secondary sources, agri-imports, vegetable oils, raw and waste cotton, fresh fruits and vegetables, data analysis, tabular formats, visual representations, compound annual growth rate, coefficient of variation, development curve, food-insecure nation, food-secure, food-abundant, net exporter, agricultural output, technologies, incentives, institutions

INTRODUCTION

In 2020-21, Growth in agriculture and related sectors was 3.6%. This was made possible by a combination of factors, including a favorable monsoon season and government initiatives to increase the supply of high-quality inputs while also expanding access to credit, investments, market facilities, and promoting the development of agriculture-specific infrastructure. In addition, the agricultural sector improved its growth rate from 3.1 percent in 2020–21 to 3.9 percent in 2021–22 thanks to timely interventions like the Atma Nirbhar Bharat (ANB) Abhiyan and other growth-promoting schemes. India's economy has flourished in recent years, with GDP expanding by 6% per year on average since 2000. This expansion has been driven primarily by the services sector, with some assistance from the manufacturing sector. However, in 2020-21, the agricultural sector will still contribute significantly to the economy, accounting for 23% of the total GDP. What's more, in a country where the population has surpassed a billion and is increasing at a rate of about 1.7% annually, roughly 60% of the labor force is engaged in agriculture. Some of India's most important policies include subsidies for agricultural inputs, guaranteed minimum prices, public food distribution, and trade protection. Most of these policies date back to the mid-1960s. Food subsidies (in government budget parlance) include both the cost of price support and the cost of food distribution. From their inception in the 1960s until the start of the WTO's Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture in 1994, India's

protectionist trade policies remained largely unchanged.

LITERATURE REVIEW

Priya Priyadarshini et.al (2021) Numerous countries' economic growth rates have been drastically altered by the COVID-19 pandemic, and India's is no exception. Even though a nationwide lockdown was instituted when the outbreak was first discovered, the country is now the second worst hit in terms of total infections. To that end, this paper assesses how the pandemic has affected food systems, how that has affected food security, and how the government has responded with reforms and policy measures. Based on the results of the study, we propose a variety of strategies for addressing food insecurity, boosting nutrition security, and guaranteeing the long-term viability of the food sector. One of them is expanding the provision of high-speed internet in neighbourhood retail or "Kirana" shops in both urban and rural regions. Another is easing the delivery of therapeutic foods and immunological supplements to the impoverished via current government initiatives, and encouraging the use of digital currency. "planetary healthy diets‖.

Raquel Ajates (2020) Farmers' cooperatives (ACs) play a significant role in European agriculture, accounting for 40-60% of agricultural trade and serving as important voices in describing rural life. institutional economics lens. There is mounting evidence that ACs are being steadily co-opted by the dominant food regime, much like the organic and fair-trade movements, and that their members are becoming less committed to cooperative ideals. While acknowledging the importance of ACs in helping farmers many of whom said they would not have made it without them if not for the assistance they received This research not only provides a new theoretical framework for further exploration of ACs within the context of wider pressures in the food system, but it also issues a warning against the degradation of their historical political underpinnings. Conflict between the cooperative economic and governance model and the market in which ACs must compete is symbolised by the hourglass in the cooperative; using the first two parts of the framework, the concept of cooperative sustainability evaluates ACs on how well they uphold the dimensions depicted in the cooperative triangle, which illustrates the interconnected nature of the cooperative identity. Vilas Gaikar (2019) For a very long time, people have understood that India is primarily an agricultural nation. There are 54.6% of Indians engaged in agriculture and associated occupations (census 2011), and they generate 17.4% of India's GDP in 2016-17. (Current prices). As of 2017, India's agricultural exports were worth $33.87 billion, or 10.5% of the country's overall exports. The paper is broken down into sections that discuss the background, the goals, the literature review, the research methodology, the rates of growth in the trade of agricultural commodities, the trade of agricultural products in India, the government's foreign trade policy regarding agriculture, and finally, the conclusion and recommendations. An exponential model of the type Yt = abteu was used to examine the expansion of India's agricultural commodities trade. Carl Pearson's co relation co efficient test was used to assess and evaluate data acquired from secondary sources, such as the economic survey and yearly reports from the agriculture ministry, to draw conclusions about agricultural commerce in this study. The study concluded with recommendations to enhance agricultural commerce in order to fortify the Indian economy, based on a methodical examination of the data. Dadson Awunyo-Vitor (2018) This study provides a theoretical and conceptual framework discussion of problems associated with gaining access to financial services. First, we'll talk about the many ideas for the need for the availability of financial services. Theories of information asymmetry and transaction costs shed light on the supply side of financial service availability, while theories of delegated monitoring and rational choice illuminate the demand side. Theoretical groundwork for a study of the connection between farmers' access to credit and agricultural output is presented below, with a focus on those working in developing countries. The last part offers some final

output. Jérémie Forney et.al (2017) The Swiss dairy industry had to restructure after milk quotas were eliminated. As new farmer groups emerged, established co-ops had to look for ways to bolster their position across a variety of fronts. The purpose of this ethnographic research was to examine how three core co-operative valuesdemocracy, solidarity, and autonomywere interpreted and evolved within the adaptation strategies formulated by five different farmer's organizations. The narratives and practises that embody these cooperative values have been around for a long time, but recent approaches show that they are experiencing a renaissance, despite the many threats to them posed by the context of market deregulation. The findings also reveal some interesting overlaps in the strategies used by co-ops and public limited companies, suggesting a blurring of the lines between these two types of organizations. Because of this, the study argues that it is beneficial to examine the practises of cooperation, beyond strict classifications, in order to learn how co-operative principles are really practised inside farmers' organisations.

METHODOLOGY

The information used in this analysis is secondary, and it was gathered and assembled over time. A wide range of commodities/products (46 total) were examined to represent the patterns and results of agricultural commerce. The research makes use of a wide range of previously published data. The Trade Yearbook of the Food and Agriculture Organization was mined for information on international agricultural exports and associated global statistics (FAOSTAT). Value-added (GVA) figures for the agricultural sector were culled from the CMIE, the Economic Survey, etc. Simple tabular methods, graphs, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR), and the coefficient of variation were used to assemble and examine the data (CV).

DATA ANALYSIS

Data on the growth or decline of India's exports and imports of agricultural goods from 1990–91 to 2020–21 are provided in Table 1 and Figure 1. Indian agricultural exports have been at a surplus for many decades. In the 30 years between 1990 and 2020, India's agri-exports multiplied by about 50, from Rs.6012.76 crore to Rs.305469 crore, a growth rate of 13.95%. The decline in agri-exports was quite small, at roughly 8% in 2019–20. India's agri-exports hit a record high in 2020–21 thanks to the efforts of Indian farmers and a variety of programs developed and implemented by the Indian government and other organizations, most notably Farmers Producer Organisations (FPOs).

crore in 1990-91 and Rs.164726.83 crore in 2016-2017. In contrast, the value of agri-imports has decreased from 2016–17, reaching Rs.137019 crore in 2018–19. The value of India's agricultural imports was Rs.14,744 million in 2019-20 and Rs.15,778,780 million in 2020-21.

Figure 1: Changes in the export and import of agricultural commodities Table 1: India exports and Imports of principle Agriculture commodities

Thus, India has shown a remarkable development trajectory, going from a food-insecure nation to one that is both food-secure and food-abundant. India is now a net exporter of agricultural output thanks to a series of revolutions in agricultural productivity spurred on by technologies, incentives, and institutional changes. Therefore, agricultural exports rose sharply from Rs.6012.76 crore in 19901991 to Rs.305469 crore in 202021. (Table 1). As a consequence of the worldwide fall in the price of agricultural goods, exports have decreased somewhat from 2013–14's record high. As a counterpoint, agricultural imports skyrocketed from Rs. 1205.86 crore in 1990-91 to Rs. 164726.83 crore in 2016-17, before declining marginally in the following years. The proportion of agricultural exports to overall exports peaked at 20.33 observation that may be made is that between 1990-91 and 2020-21, agri-export expanded by 13.95%, which is less than the 16.85% increase in agri-import. However, the expansion of the agricultural sector outpaced that of the country's overall commerce trade. (Table 1). Agricultural exports contributed 13.6% of GVA in 2013–14, up from 3.8% in 1990–91. Later, in 2020–21, it dropped to 8.45% from its previous high. As a result, the share of agricultural imports in India's agricultural GVA has grown from 0.78 percentage points in 1990–91 to 6.54 percentage points in 2016–17. In contrast, India's reliance on imports of agricultural goods and commodities has diminished, with the share of agricultural GVA spent on imports falling from 6.54 percent in 2016–17 to 4.36 percent in 2020–21. Further, it can be seen that after the implementation of the World Trade Organization agreement, India's agri-exports peaked at 20.33 percent of its total exports in 1996–97, and fell to 9.64 percent in 2008–09, while India's agri-imports peaked at 8.17 percent of its total national imports in 1998–99, and fell to 2.09 percent in 2008–09. (Table 1).

COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND INDIA’S AGRI-EXPORTS

India's agricultural exports surged 20.75 percent in 2020-21, from Rs.2.56 trillion the year before to Rs.3.05 trillion. The value of India's imports of food and agricultural products was Rs.1.47 lakh crore in 2019–20, and it is expected to rise to Rs.1.58 lakh crore in 2020–21. With the COVID-19 pandemic raging on, the agricultural trade deficit has narrowed from Rs.1.06 lakh crore to Rs.1.48 lakh crore, a 39.94% improvement. India's agricultural exports surged 20.75 percent in 2020-21, from Rs.2.56 trillion the year before to Rs.3.05 trillion. The value of India's imports of food and agricultural products was Rs.1.47 lakh crore in 2019–20, and it is expected to rise to Rs.1.58 lakh crore in 2020–21. Contrary to fears, the COVID-19 pandemic has not negatively impacted the agricultural trade balance, which has increased from Rs.1.06 lakh crore to Rs.1.48 lakh crore, a 39.94% increase. Of all agricultural exports in 2020–21, 52.2% went to these top 10 countries. When looking at India's agri-imports, we see that vegetable oils account for around 52% of all imports. The value of India's imports of vegetable oil in fiscal year 2020-21 is Rs.82116 crore. Fruits, pulses, spices, and cashews are also big ag imports. There were five items that made up 79.4% of India's total agri-imports. When compared to imports of other commodities, sugar imports into India are expected to increase by 91 percent in 2020-21. There was a 67% increase in the importation of niger seeds, 60% the importation of pulses, and 20% in the importation of cereal preparations. In contrast, agri-imports of raw cotton and non-Basmati rice fell by 69% and 73%, respectively, while imports of fresh vegetables fell by 62%, guar gum meal by 57%, processed vegetables by 36%, and wheat by 34%. Agriculture and allied commodity exports increased by 35.76 percent from April to June of 2020-21 to 2021-22, with first quarter 2021 exports totaling Rs.65768.07 crore compared to Rs.48444.16 crore in the previous year. Exports of other cereals increased by 401% from April to June 2021 to the same period in 2020. Exports of meat, dairy, and poultry products increased by 106%. Exports of cereal preparations and miscellaneous processed items increased by 65%. Exports of oil meals increased by 61%. Exports of marine products increased by 46%. Vegetable oil agri-imports increased by 110% from April to June 2021 to 2020 levels, followed by a rise in agri-imports of 61% for fruits and vegetables and 45% for cotton raw and waste. It appears that agricultural exports did exceptionally well, despite the severe second COVID-19 wave.

AGRI-TRADE OF INDIA AND THE WORLD

The topic of how India substantially contributes to the alterations of the global ecosystem and the COVID-19 pandemic has emerged despite the fact that India's agri-trade intensity ratio has been rising over time. From 0.52 percent in 1990 to 1.71 percent in 2019, India's export share has increased, a compound annual growth rate of 12.39 percent. This is compared to the global average of 7.03 percent. Similar to that trend, agri-exports in dollar terms increased steadily from 0.94 percent in 1991 to 3.04 percent in 2013. It is important to note that agri-exports have declined since their high in 2013 and have not yet returned to that level. While the decline in India's agri-exports was the largest, it was mirrored by a worldwide decline in the industry. In 2015, they finally reached the upper tiers, a full year after India did. The South East Asian crisis, global economic slowdown, and decrease in agricultural prices all played a role in the precipitous fall in agri-export earnings beginning in 1997. From 0.94 percent in 1990 to 3.04 percent in 2003, India's agri-export share increased, but has since steadily decreased, reaching 2.03 percent in 2019. When compared to the global averages of 6.28 and 6.14 percent, respectively, the CAGR for India's agri-exports and agri-imports are significantly higher at 10.41 and 12.74 percent. This research also found that India's agricultural imports

Table 2: Import and Export in World and India Trade The State and Trend of Food, Agriculture and Food Security

From 1962–63 to 2003–04, during the Green Revolution period, the world produced an additional

(Table 3). The output of oilseeds, sugarcane, and cotton had also increased by a factor of two to three. Although there has been an uptick in the production of pulses in the previous years, the overall number of tons produced has stayed around 12 million tonnes. From the 1970s forward, livestock output has increased dramatically, from 23 million tonnes in the TE 1972–73 to 88 million tonnes in the TE 2003–04 (a factor of 4.8). India has overtaken China as the world's greatest milk producer, with annual output of about 100 million tonnes. Fish and egg harvests have increased by a factor of five to six. Table 3: Production Trend in Indian Agriculture Components of a Strategy for Exporting Agricultural Goods

The report's policy suggestions are separated into two main groups: strategic and operational. The most important aspects of the agricultural export policy are summarised here and expanded upon in the following chapters.

Current Agri Trade Scenario

During the five years between 2013 and 2017, international commerce in agricultural products was generally flat owing to falling worldwide prices. Falling oil prices has a significant impact on agricultural commodity prices throughout the world. Despite this, global trade volume did not decrease, indicating sustained demand. India's agricultural export 1 fell during 2014-15 and 2015-16. Even though the global market is tight, India's agri exports have rebounded strongly in 2016–17 thanks to the country's return to normal output. Ten-year data on India's agricultural exports paints a promising picture. When comparing the period between 2007 and 2016, India's agricultural exports expanded at a faster rate (nine percent) than those of China (eight percent), Brazil (five percent), or the United States (five percent). During this time period, exports of foodstuffs like meat and fish as well as processed goods increased by a factor of three to five, while exports of coffee, grains, and horticulture output quadrupled. India has a lot of fertile land, but its agricultural exports still lag behind those of nations like Thailand and Indonesia. The agricultural system in India has evolved significantly since the Green Revolution. The value of India's yearly agricultural GDP increased from about $25 billion in the early 1970s to over US$100 billion in the late 1990s. During this time, development was slow and mostly focused on grain crops like wheat and rice. However, due in large part to increases in horticulture, dairy, poultry, and inland aquaculture, The value of agricultural production in the nation has climbed from US$101 billion in 2000 to almost US$367 billion in 2014. There is hope that India may become a prominent participant in the global agricultural trade since it has the most diversified food and non-food agriculture base of any nation. India may be the world leader in exporting including these agricultural items, but overall the country's agri export basket accounts for less than 2% of the US$1.37 trillion global agri trade market. India's food security and price stability concerns are a major driving force behind its seemingly insular policies.

Due to the low value, raw or semi-processed nature, and high volume of its exports, India is at the bottom of the global agri export value chain. Less than 25% of India's total agricultural production consists of high-value, value-added exports, much behind the United States (25%) and China (49%). Because to problems with quality, lack of standardisation, and failure to cut losses throughout the value chain, India is unable to export its plentiful horticultural produce. The increasing internationalization of supply chains makes it crucial for countries to work together to increase exports of high-margin, value-added, and branded processed goods. A major shift in policy is on the horizon, as exports will shift from being a byproduct of meeting domestic demand to being carefully curated to suit the tastes of specific international markets. CONCLUSION study also found that agri exports grew by a remarkable 20.75 percent in 2020-21 and by 35.76 percent in the despite the presence of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic growth was stronger in the first quarter of 2021-2022 than in the corresponding periods of the previous year. India has a lot of horticultural produce, but it can't export it because of problems with quality control, standardization, and waste reduction all along the value chain. Current Indian farming is fundamentally different from the agricultural practices of the Green Revolution era. In the beginning, expansion was slow and focused primarily on cereal crops like wheat and rice.

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Corresponding Author Anju Rani*

Ph.d Scholar, Dept. of Economics, Baba Mastnath University, Asthal Bohar, Rohtak