Probability: Settings and Rationales Why Probability

Understanding Probability and Decision Making in Everyday Life

Abstract

Conceptsand intuitions from probability theory are ubiquitous in many aspects of our"non-mathematical" lives. When we decide whether to pay more for acar that is reported to be "more reliable"; when we choose tosafeguard our children by living in a "low-crime" neighborhood; whenwe change our diet and exercise habits to lower the risk of heart disease; whenwe accept or refuse a job with other options pending; all the above actionsinvolve implicit probability judgments.