Estimating Heterogeneous Birth Probabilities using the EM Algorithm: A Probabilistic Approach to Population Dynamics Modeling

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Published: Apr 1, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.29070/05ftnq50
Keywords:
Heterogeneous, Birth Probabilities, EM Algorithm, Probabilistic, Dynamics Modeling

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Authors

Archana Rajesh Meshram

Research Scholar, Department of Statistics, Sunrise University, Alwar, Rajasthan

Dr. Peer Javaid Ahmad

Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics, Sunrise University, Alwar, Rajasthan

Abstract

Improving our ability to calculate birth probabilities among diverse subgroups in a population is crucial for understanding population growth dynamics. The various reproductive behaviours inherent in real-world communities are typically ignored by traditional demographic models, which generally presuppose uniformity. Using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) technique, this research presents a probabilistic framework for predicting heterogeneous birth probability. The population is modelled as a finite mixture of Bernoulli distributions, with a different birth probability for each subgroup. In order to uncover hidden demographic patterns in binary birth outcome data, the EM technique is used to estimate the parameters of the latent mixture model repeatedly. In spite of imbalances and noise, the method converges quickly and accurately in synthetic dataset trials. A real-world case study also shows how the approach may be applied to find hidden subgroups with different reproductive trends. To find the best amount of subpopulations, model selection techniques like the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) might be utilised. The suggested strategy increases both the accuracy of estimates and their interpretability in demographic research, according to the results. Because it provides a detailed, data-driven picture of fertility trends in different populations, this method shows potential for long-term population forecasting, resource allocation, and policy modelling.

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Vol. 22 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Advances in Science and Technology (JAST)

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