A Time Series Change Analysis of Lake Area and Their Response to Climate Change: Case Study of Nainital Region Lakes, Kumaun Himalayan: Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Lake Area in Kumaun Himalayan Region

Abstract

The lakes of Kumaun Lesser Himalayan region has undergone significant change in last five decades. Lake surface area is decreasing continuously under the influence of climate change viz., rainfall pattern affecting water resources of the area. In the present exercise we have examined 8 Kumaun Himalayan lakes from 1972 to 2019 with the help of Landsat 8 data and calculated lake area change for the last five decades. These 8 lakes include Nainital, Bhimtal, Naukuchiatal, Pannatal, Sattal, Khurpatal, Harishtal and Lohakhamtal. The Landsat image series from 1972 to 2017 were collected from United States Geological Survey (USGS) earth explorer for detecting the changes through time. The results show that the lakes of Kumaun Himalayan region showing overall shrinking trend from 1972 to 2018 with >81 overall accuracy, >0.84 overall kappa statistics. Overall lake surface area change has gone through three phases viz., a sharp increment of lake surface area during 1972-1981, a gradual decrement during 1982-2013 and slight increment during 2013-2017.